Debacle in Copenhagen

Climate change debacle


On Dec. 7 to 12, leaders of 193 nations gathered in Copenhagen to produce a treaty that would replace the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012. The rare summit, attended by no less than 120 heads of state and of government, was neither a great success nor a complete failure.

It was not a great success because the summit failed to produce a replacement to the Kyoto Treaty, failed to endorse a legally binding plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and will certainly fail to curb global warming, that is prevent the earth’s temperature from rising 2 degrees Celsius to avoid disasters of many kinds.

But it was not a complete failure because the Conference of Parties or COP 15 as the summit came to be known, produced an interim accord that at first glance would curb greenhouse gases, provide mechanisms for verifying countries’ emissions, stop the destruction of rain forests, and raise money to help vulnerable nations adapt to climate change thru burden sharing by the world’s rich countries.

Some $100 billion a year has been pledged for the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund beginning in 2020 with startup of $10 billion a year for three years from 2010 to 2012, or $30 billion in three years. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said “$100 billion a year is significant big money.” The Europen Union pledged $3.6 billion annually to the start-up fund. Japan and the US made unspecified amounts.

Some people credit United States President Barack Obama for preventing the summit’s total collapse which was certain in late afternoon of the last day, Friday, Dec. 18. He endured at least two instances of snub by Chinese Premier Wen, negotiated with India, Brazil and South Africa by inviting himself into closed-door meeting of the four countries and forged an agreement.
But China should also be given credit for success. It softened on its stand no to subject itself to international verification because it would hurt its sovereignty.
China’s willingness to submit to a verification system under which all countries would agree to report on their actions and open their books to inspection. Transparency is a huge issue in the US Congress. Obama stressed in his opening remarks on Friday that he would not agree to a deal unless China gave ground.

China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, lauded the outcome of the COP15 that ended with a nonbinding agreement that urges major polluters to make deeper emissions cuts — but does not require it. “It brought significant and positive results,” said China Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.
Among the positive results, Yang said, were that it upheld the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" recognized by the Kyoto Protocol, and made a step forward in promoting binding emissions cuts for developed countries and voluntary mitigating actions by developing countries.

"Developing and developed countries are very different in their historical emissions responsibilities and current emissions levels, and in their basic national characteristics and development stages," Yang said in a statement. "Therefore, they should shoulder different responsibilities and obligations in fighting climate change."

Yang added the conference also created a consensus on key issues such as long-term global emissions reduction targets, funding and technology support to developing countries, and transparency.

"The Copenhagen conference is not a destination but a new beginning," Yang said

“We've made meaningful and unprecedented breakthrough here in Copenhagen,” said Obama following 13 hours of non-stop negotiations. “For the first time in history all major economies have come together to accept their responsibility to take action to confront the threat of climate change.”

“We agreed to join an international effort to provide financing to help developing countries, particularly the poorest and most vulnerable, adapt to climate change. And we reaffirmed the necessity of listing our national actions and commitments in a transparent way,” the US President said.
“These three components -- transparency, mitigation and finance -- form the basis of the common approach that the US and our partners embraced here in Copenhagen,” he explained. He hopes countries will reach consensus “around these three points, a consensus that will serve as a foundation for global action to confront the threat of climate change for years to come.”
Throughout the last day of COP15, Obama worked with Prime Minister Meles of Ethiopia, who was representing Africa, Premier Wen of China, Prime Minister Singh of India, President Lula of Brazil, and President Zuma of South Africa, to achieve what I believe will be an important milestone.
Earlier Friday evening, Obama had a meeting with the last four leaders -- from China, India, Brazil, and South Africa. In that meeting, he said, “we agreed to list our national actions and commitments, to provide information on the implementation of these actions through national communications, with international consultations and analysis under clearly defined guidelines. We agreed to set a mitigation target to limit warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius, and importantly, to take action to meet this objective consistent with science.”

“We've come a long way,” Obama gushed, “but we have much further to go.”
The Copenhagen Accord underlines “that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time” and emphasizes the countries’ “strong political will to urgently combat climate change in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities."

The text acknowledges to keep average global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, "consistent with science and on the basis of equity."
all references to the lower number of 1.5 degrees — called for by island nations whose very survival is at risk — were removed from the final version.
Emissions reduction targets
The text acknowledges that deep cuts in global warming emissions are necessary, but it provides no targets.
All references to a 2050 goal were eliminated from the final version.

Initial drafts had called for cutting emissions to 50% of 1990 levels by then.
Initial versions also suggested that a 2020 goal would be added, but it did not appear. In the proposed text, the Annex I parties would commit to implement their individual emissions reduction goals for 2020 (see chartsthis page). The text, if approved, would require them to file those plans by February 2010, but it doesn't recommend an overall target or minimum reduction level.
There are no emissions reduction targets for developing nations. The closest the text comes to suggesting a target is this:
“We should cooperate in achieving the peaking of global and national emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that the timeframe for peaking will be longer in developing countries and bearing in mind that social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries and that a low-emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development.”

Financing
The text includes a combined $30 billion in fast-start money from developed nations across the 2010-2012 period.
That funding — meant to support adaptation, technology transfer and development, and mitigation efforts — would be prioritized for the most vulnerable developing countries, such as the least-developed countries, small island states and African countries.
Beyond 2012, the draft states that developed countries would “set a goal” of mobilizing $100 billion a year by 2020, with the money coming from a variety of public and private sources.
A Copenhagen Climate Fund would be established as the financial mechanism for funding projects, including forestry, adaptation, and capacity building. And a Technology Transfer Mechanism would be established “to accelerate technology development and transfer.”
Measure, report, verify
For oversight, a “High Level Panel” would be established under the Conference of Parties’ guidance, according to the proposal.
Developed nations would fall under a strict monitoring regime: “Delivery of reductions and financing by developed countries will be measured, reported and verified in accordance with existing and any further guidelines adopted by the Conference of Parties, and will ensure that accounting of such targets and finance is rigorous, robust and transparent.”
Among non-Annex I countries, only those seeking international support “will be subject to international measurement, reporting and verification in accordance with guidelines adopted by the Conference of Parties.” Other actions would fall under domestic measurement reporting and verification instead.
Completion date
The proposed text, still legally non-binding, offered no timetable for writing a legally binding accord. Initial drafts had set a goal of no later than the next Conference of Parties meeting in Mexico in 2010.

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