The soft state holds an election

The soft state holds an election

I wrote last week about the Philippines being a soft state – with a government that cannot enforce its laws, cannot discipline its citizens, and cannot summon the respect of foreigners living in this country.

I cited the example of one Jason Ivler, the stepson of a Stephen Pollard, a British bureaucrat economist of the Asian Development Bank. Ivler has been involved in two major killings --- that of Undersecretary for Resettlement Nestor Ponce in 2004 and of Renato Victor Ebarle Jr., son of undersecretary Renato Ebarle Sr. of the Office of the Executive Secretary Malacañang.

Ponce and his wife, Evangeline, were driving to Tagaytay one early Sunday morning in August 2004 to pray that their son pass the bar, when his Isuzu trooper was slammed by a wayward Land Cruiser coming from the opposite or northward side of the C5 Ortigas flyover. Ponce died instantly, from massive loss of blood due to injuries.

The young Ebarle was shot pointblank by a man who looked like Ivler on Nov. 18 at a usually busy intersection in Quezon City. A policeman saw the incident and gave chase to the killer who disappeared in one of the garages in upscale New Manila. Ivler has gone missing, armed and dangerous.

The victims are powerful or politically well-connected people. And yet, Ivler cannot be found, coddled by Pollard who invokes his so-called diplomatic immunity. Pollard should have been arrested by the police instantly, for obstruction of justice. Since the Philippines is a soft state, we cannot do that.

Now comes the biggest proof that we are indeed a soft state. A political warlord of Maguindanao and top goon of Mindanao is accused of killing no less than 57 people who were going to participate in one of the most elegant rites of democracy – the filing of a certificate of candidacy for local elective positions. At least 30 of the 57 were mediamen – the largest number of press people killed in a single incident in the history of mankind.

Naturally, there is a national and global outrage from all freedom-loving citizens of the world. President Arroyo is on the defensive. Plainly, the blame lies at her doorstep.

In other countries, that kind of massacre will trigger calls for the President’s resignation. But why ask her to resign when she has barely six months left of her nine years of presidency? Besides, the last time there was a call for her to resign, she instead imposed a 12 percent value added tax which miraculously saved her government and the country from falling into the precipice of a gargantuan budget deficit.

Sure, the massacre will make Mrs. Arroyo even more unpopular. Majority of Filipinos don’t like her work despite her having produced 35 consecutive quarters of economic growth, doubling the per capita GNP to $2,000, a feat never done before.

What to do then? Media has n come out as a single voice and confront her. Tell her -- Arrest the Ampatuans, disarm them and lock them in jail.

Can she do that? So far, one Ampatuan has been arrested, the mayor who is said to have masterminded the whole savagery.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in her recent Manila visit that an outgoing executive actually has greater political will. “It is easier to make difficult decisions when you are on the way out of office, because you know what’s at stake and you are willing to brave the political fires,” she told a televised gathering of students Nov. 13.

President Arroyo can exercise political will if she wants to. Her executive order freezing prices of refined petroleum products for nearly a month was an act of political will. It angered the oil cartel and caused shortages in supplies here and there. But she proved that the oil companies are manipulating supplies and prices and operate indeed, like a cartel, contrary to what her own energy secretary had been claiming. Now, she has put on notice to the oil companies, “if you become unruly again, I will reimpose price controls”.

In the case of Maguindanao and the rest of Mindanao, there are a lot more at stake than simply controlling prices. The most important consideration is the May 10, 2010 election when the nation chooses Arroyo’s successor.

Trouble here and there, killings here and there, can create conditions of chaos, leading of failure of elections. No elections, no clearly elected leader. Who takes over then?

You know the answer.

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