Life in the time of meltdown

Life in the time of meltdown

It seems we are in for a long and dreadful economic slowdown. In the Philippines. In Asia. In America. In Europe. Throughout the world.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts economic growth as measured by the rise in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP or the total output of goods and services in a given year) to be 4.4 percent for the Philippines during 2008 and 3.8 percent during 2009. The 4.4 percent 2008 GDP growth will be the lowest for the country in six years and the lowest among the ten member countries of the ASEAN, except Brunei. In 2009, however, Singapore will grow slower than the Philippines – 3.5 percent vs. 3.8 percent.
Still, the 4.4 percent 2008 GDP growth remains far better than the 2.8 percent average growth during 1990-1999 which was one of the worst decades for the Philippine economy. Having gone through the worst, Filipinos should be able to breeze through 2008 and 2009 suffering damage no worse than having shallower pockets and a more frugal lifestyle.
According to the IMF, developing Asia will grow 8.4 percent in 2008 and 7.7 percent in 2009, down from 10 in 2007 and 9.9 percent in 2006. China will grow by 9.7 percent in 2008 and 9.3 percent in 2009, down from 11.9 percent in 2007 and 11.6 percent in 2006. The US will grow by 1.5 percent in 2008 and by 0.1 in 2009; Japan by 0.7 percent in 2008 and 0.5 in 2009, down from 2.1 percent in 2007 and 2.4 percent in 2006. The world output will grow by just 3.9 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent in 2009, down from 5.0 percent in 2007 and 5.1 percent in 2006.
There has never been a time like it. My advice: Enjoy it. Make the most of it. During times like these, the fixed income people will do better than the so-called entrepreneurs or businessmen. If you have a well-paying job, keep it. Work hard. Be useful. Be productive. Be creative. This is no time to malinger or absent yourself from work. As a professional manager, you will do better than the SOB – son of the boss.
As I keep saying, an economic slowdown will be good for the Philippines. It will force Filipinos to return to basics. Save rather than spend. Buy the cheaper goods rather than the exorbitantly priced models.
At Greenhills, you can buy a decent brand-new Nokia phone with SIM card included for just P1,500. Compare that with the P50,000 being charged for an iPhone which is nothing more than a glorified iPod MP3. Panasonic plasma tv sets are selling at 30 to 40 percent lower than the overpriced models of Samsung and Sony. Buy the A650 Panasonic series. They are as good, if not better, than the Series 6 of Samsung and the W series of Sony. True, Panasonic panels are plasma, not LCD, unlike those of Samsung and Sony. Plasma tvs are good in the dark and watching movies is still best in the dark. By the way, do not buy HDMI Blu-Ray DVD players. They cost eight to ten times the ordinary HDMI players.
There has never been a time like it. My advice: Enjoy it. Make the most of it. During times like these, the fixed income people will do better than the so-called entrepreneurs or businessmen. If you have a well-paying job, keep it. Work hard. Be useful. Be productive. Be creative. This is no time to malinger or absent yourself from work.
cregular HDMI players.
Izod has been selling 100 percent cotton non-iron dress chino pants at 50 to 60 percent off. They are much better designed and look better on you than Dockers or Armani pants. Nikon’s D40 cameras are as good and as competent as the Nikon D300 or D700 at a third of the price. The Nikon D700, whose body seems to have been crafted from a tank, is as heavy as a checked-in luggage. Heavy too is the price – at least P125,000, body only. The Mazda3 drives as excellently as the BMW Series 3 at a fifth of the latter’s price, with a better service to boot. The Nissan Patrol to me remains the best buy in high-end SUVs. They are priced just half of and are far more durable than the marquee brands of Europe. You also get better service.
You can have a life and a lifestyle and still have some savings stashed in the bank.
Stocks? Share prices of major Philippine companies are selling at their 52-week lows and below book value. There has never been a better time to invest in stocks than now. Buy chunks of the companies of Henry Sy, Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, George SK Ty, Lucio Tan, Andrew Tan or even Manny Villar at 60 to 70 percent discount. Come the time for annual meetings next year, you will be glad you did because you will be able to heckle these people and ask them to explain just what they did in 2008 that made their companies do so well --- or do so badly.

biznewsasia@gmail.com